Summary: Taiwan's intelligence agency launched its new advertising campaign in the airport.

　　中评社记者刘晓丹在台北桃园机场拍到了以下照片。这个横幅显然让她很疑惑：“打电话能参与两岸和平稳定？在桃园国际机场，到处都挂着这个让人摸不着头脑的广告。”

　　其实广告里已经写得很明白：“我帮你，007。”怎么帮？请提供对“007”有价值的情报！台北情报机关大概想利用大陆观光团来游的机会，物建耳目。在情搜工作中打两岸和平稳定牌不是台北的新发明。大约2年前，“国安局”第二处就曾用“烽火无情，真爱无价”的招牌，号召海外及大陆人士通过免付费长途电话贡献情资，以“化干戈为玉帛”。由此可见，小马哥上位后，两岸关系虽日渐热络，情报战的硝烟却一点没有消散。

Summary: Russia announced its space cooperation plan with Korea yesterday. Korea plans to start development of the KSLV-2.

　　俄罗斯昨天宣布了将与韩国联合开发KSLV-2运载火箭的消息，新型火箭将采用二级或三级结构，预计运载能力可达1吨。此前，韩国政府和军方宣布了中长期太空战略，KSLV-2将比KSLV-1采用更多自有技术。

　　在航天及周边项目（如航天测量控制技术）上增加投入，可以缩小韩国与邻近大国——尤其是与日本的军事差距。尽管和平宪法限制日本直接装备弹道导弹，但其拥有先进的运载火箭，可以轻易地改造成中程、远程甚至洲际弹道导弹。今年5月，日本参议院全体会议又通过宇宙基本法，为今后进行军事航天活动打通道路，进一步增强韩国危机意识。

　　韩国在弹道导弹发展上一直受美国压制。直至2001年，美国才被迫同意废除1979年与韩国签署的导弹谅解备忘录，韩国随后加入导弹技术控制协议（MTCR，Missile Technology Control Regime）。俄罗斯也是MTCR成员国，此次韩国从俄罗斯获得先进“民用运载火箭技术”，相信是在上述协议框架内进行。俄罗斯向韩国输出太空技术，不仅可获得商业利益，更可籍此强化在东北亚的战略影响力，并为美日韩三边关系羼杂变数。

Summary: "Tracking the Dragon: Selected National Intelligence Estimates on China, 1948-1976", this collection of declassified National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs) is the first such release of analytical products exclusively on China.

　　最近工作繁忙，博客疏于更新，在此向各位老友致歉。春节以来，花费了几乎所有业余时间来读4年前由美国国家情报委员会和中情局公布的解密文件汇编“Tracking the Dragon”。这份汇编收录了有关中国的美国国家情报评估报告共37份，涉及71份解密文件，是研究美国政府情报工作与政策的一份宝贵资料。

　　苏葆立（Robert L. Suettinger，情报界资深人士，职业情报分析家）在为报告撰写的绪论中写道：“（本汇编及相关文件）将为对情报作业程序、任务执行情况与其对政策所产生的影响感兴趣的历史学家和政治学家提供丰富的原始资料。这些文件在美国政府领导人与官员制定有关中国国内战争时期的中国共产党以及1949年后成立的和在毛泽东领导下的中华人民共和国政府的政策过程中起到了至关重要的作用。本人认为，同样重要的是，这些文件作为原始资料对于我们目前了解中华人民共和国，包括其政治、经济和外交政策，所进行的努力具有重要意义。”

　　这些报告与解密文件可以分别在国家情报委员会与中情局网站下载。我本人亦给予最强烈的阅读推荐。

Summary: The Washington Times says a DOD investigation has revealed Chinese spy penetration through a "front company" in Hawaii involved in teaching Chinese language.

　　以下是The Nelson Report的一则快讯，五角大楼认为某些在夏威夷教汉语的中国人不地道。

　　DOD/CHINA SPY...dramatic front page story in The Washington Times this morning claims a DOD investigation has revealed Chinese spy penetration thru a "front company" in Hawaii involved in teaching Chinese language.

　　Informed sources who have read the DOD investigation documents have expressed themselves in the language used in our headline...the follow-on quote actually said "pure c--p", but we fear for various spam guards, so will be delicate about this.

　　Informed sources say the DOD investigation found (their paraphrase), "not surprisingly, people involved in Chinese language training do have personal contacts with Chinese from time to time. And it will not surprise you that perhaps a few of these individuals have personal relationships".

　　But for the Washington Times version of the DOD report? "Patently false, it's absolute total c--p. It's not even close. It's just not true that there is a PRC 'front company' doing translation services in Hawaii..."

Summary: Chen Shui-bian listed five conditions on using cruise missiles against Mainland China.

　　陈水扁前几天说了用导弹反击大陆的五个前提条件：1、只用于战术打击（only be used tactically）；2、用于自卫（in self-defence）；3、不以普通居民为袭击目标（without targeting the general public）；4、获当局授权（with the nod from security authorities）；5、预先与美国沟通（communicate with the US beforehand）。

　　孔哲文先生（Eric Hagt）在回复本站的邮件中指出：The first four are fluff of course, and the last would likely prevent Taiwan from ever doing so. Unless "communicate" means inform without asking permission, which in this political climate wouldn't be unthinkable. Still, the whole idea seems a little preposterous. Effective self-defense hardly seems a viable option for Taiwan, or will change the balance, even with a missile to reach Beijing or knock out a satellite or two.

　　在另一封邮件中，他特别强调：The last one（注：指与美国沟通）, as I said, is the most interesting, and if real, would make the US nervous, as it would provide Taiwan with an option to strike offensively at China. That's an unlikely scenario but in a volatile political climate, worst case scenarios have to be thunk and planned for. This is probably why the last condition was added (to reassure the U.S.) and I think makes its use highly inconceivable that it would be used in any conflict scenario that doesn't involve the U.S. It could also be a ploy to show the U.S. That Taiwan does have options for self-defense and is a way to show Taiwan's displeasure with Washington's recent slide toward Beijing, with official rebuffing of the UN referendum. Still, the whole idea of this actually making a difference in power balance across the Strait seems exagerrated. A missile that can reach Beijing would only ratched up the cross-strait tension and would unlikely change the military balance.

　　以上评论只代表孔哲文先生个人意见，不反映世界安全研究所的正式立场。